Boris Johnson Versus the European Union
How the UK’s unorthodox Prime Minister outmaneuvered the European Union
Last week, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced that they have finished an updated Brexit deal to accommodate UK concerns stemming from sticky particulars around Northern Ireland. This deal is just the latest in a long string of negotiating victories for the UK over the EU. This article is not meant to discuss the merits of Brexit itself (I am saving that for a later time) but instead to catalogue the many times since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in 2019 through this latest deal made under the direction of now Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that the EU has dug in and declared negotiations closed only to later cave to British demands.
Making the Impossible a Reality
In 2019, then Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May had secured a deal for what some characterized as a soft Brexit, one where the UK would still align itself with many of the rules and institutions of the EU without being a member. This deal failed to satisfy many in the Prime Minister’s own party who wanted a more definitive break and most of the MPs from the Labour Party that seemed not to know what it wanted from Brexit or if it wanted it at all. Time and time again votes on May’s Brexit deal failed, including once by the historic margin of 230 votes. Stuck without a way forward she resigned, and Johnson was selected as the new head of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister. Many political analysts speculated at the time that a Brexit deal that could pass Parliament was impossible given the polarized views between and within the parties as to what Brexit should accomplish. Nevertheless, upon taking office Johnson promised that he would get Brexit done, “No ifs or buts.”
Seemingly key to Johnson’s success was his absolute refusal to take a no-deal Brexit off the table. Pundits sounded the alarm that Johnson was driving the country off a cliff and the EU insisted that reaching a new deal with the UK would be nearly impossible. Then just two weeks before the deadline that would see the UK leave the EU without a deal the announcement came that the two sides had in fact reached an agreement on a new deal. Johnson’s deal was seen as a harder Brexit than May’s, moving the UK further away from EU regulations and rules. The deal satisfied many of the hardliners in his party and was consistent with Johnson’s own viewpoint that if the UK’s relationship with the EU was not dramatically different moving forward then Brexit would be pointless. The deadlock in Parliament threatened Johnson’s deal as it had his predecessor’s and so he successfully pushed for new elections in December of 2019. In those elections, with Johnson campaigning on finally getting Brexit done, the Conservative Party enjoyed its greatest electoral success since 1987 while flipping a multitude of Labour seats. Later that month, Johnson’s bill passed Parliament. On January 31st, 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union.
Next the political battle shifted to securing a trade deal with the EU that would prevent the UK from losing its most important trading partner overnight. Again, EU leadership chastised Johnson for his obstinance and claimed he was making it likely that a deal would never get done. Johnson responded by urging the British public to prepare themselves for a no deal scenario. Again, just seven days before the yearend deadline, the two sides reached a trade and cooperation agreement.
Even before the trade deals talks reached a successful end, Johnson announced that the nature of the arrangements made for Northern Ireland in the Brexit agreement were unacceptable and would have to be changed. His announcement provoked yet another outcry from the opposition and the EU who insisted (correctly) that it would be a violation of international law if the UK did not implement Brexit along the terms that had been agreed to by both sides. EU leadership again pointed fingers at Johnson and spoke of the damage he was doing to his country’s international reputation and insisted that it was impossible to go back and change the agreement now. The Prime Minister maintained his course and preparations to unilaterally alter the terms of the agreement with an act of Parliament, again a violation of international law. He told the EU that the UK “would do whatever it takes” to alter the agreement in the way he felt was necessary. Johnson’s own wild brand of politics and loose relationship with the truth led to the premature end of his tenure and his successor, Liz Truss, was not around long enough to learn which key opened the door. Nevertheless, as stated in the introduction, Prime Minister Sunak, a former member of Johnson’s government, just concluded negotiations at the end of February on a deal that is poised to rewrite the Northern Ireland protocol on terms more favorable to the UK.
How Did He Do It?
Opinions vary greatly as to the political and economic effects that Brexit has had and will still have. Many individuals believe the UK is worse off as a result of the actions of Johnson and his party, while others celebrate their commitment to the will of the people. What cannot be denied is that Johnson delivered a master class in negotiation and achieved results that opponents and pundits alike swore were impossible. At each turn, Johnson’s negotiating success seems to have flowed in large part from his ability to convince the EU and many observers that he was perfectly willing to embrace a catastrophic result. May had not been able to nonchalantly tell the public or the EU that she would essentially crash the country on the rocks if necessary to honor the result of the Brexit referendum. However, Johnson refused to be cowed by the bleak picture the EU and the opposition insisted he was painting. Time and time again, the EU drew a line in the sand and the UK calmly erased it.
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